Summer outlook: Odds tilted toward another hot one in New England
Memorial Day is considered the unofficial start of summer for many Americans. While astronomically the season does not begin until the summer solstice on June 21, meteorologists consider the three month period from the beginning of June to the end of August the summer season.
According to NOAA's summer outlook released last week, much of the nation is favored to have a hotter than average summer in 2017.
Only in the Great Plains do forecasters think the chances for a cool or a normal summer are equal to the chances of a hot summer. Everywhere else, odds are 'tilted toward' well above average warmth. This includes New England and the East Coast.
The orange and red colors on the map show where forecasters believe chances of a much warmer than average summer exceed 33%. The darker the color, the greater the chances.
Currently, forecasters do not believe any portion of the country has a significant chance of a much cooler than average summer. All three temperature possibilities (colder than normal, near normal, and warmer than normal), have an equal chance of occurring in the Great Plains; there is not a strong signal leaning in either direction.
NOAA's complete forecast includes the odds of all three temperature categories for locations across the country. In Concord (and all of New Hampshire, for that matter) odds are tilted heavily in the 'well above' normal category; odds are better than 50-50 the Granite State will have another warmer than normal summer.
The Climate Prediction Center says by the fall, a slight tilt toward El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean is expected; this means El Nino may be a bigger player in the forecast for next fall and winter.