Oct 21, 2014 5:10 PM
Paul Steinhauser: New NH1 poll in Shea-Porter battle with Guinta
NH1 Political Director - NH1.com
CONCORD - With an hour to go until the NH1 debate in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, a new survey indicates the race all tied up.
According to a NH1 Poll by New England College, Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter stands at 46 percent among likely voters, with former Rep. Frank Guinta, the Republican challenger, at 47 percent.
Guinta's one-percentage point margin is well within the survey's sampling error, meaning the contest is basically deadlocked.
Shea-Porter was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, and re-elected in 2008. But Guinta defeated her in 2010, ousting her from Congress. Shea-Porter returned the favor in 2012. Now, two years later, the two candidates are facing off for a third time in what many people are calling the three-peat.
"After three election cycles of the same two candidates in CD-1, voters appear nearly evenly split," notes Wayne Lesperance, professor of political science at New England College. "This is another race that looks like it will come down to the wire."
Another recent poll by WMUR and the University of New Hampshire indicated Shea-Porter with a slight three-point edge, which was within that survey's sampling error.
The NH1/NEC automated poll indicates no real gender gap, with both female and male voters divided in their support between the two candidates. It was a very different story in the 2nd Congressional District race between Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster and state Rep. Marilinda Garica, the GOP challenger. Kuster led by 15 points among women and Garcia held a five-point advantage among men.
The NH1/NEC poll was conducted Oct. 16, with 461 likely voters in the 1st congressional district questioned by telephone. The survey uses Interactive Voice Response technology, an automated polling system.
The sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
With two weeks to go until Election Day, the two candidates are facing off in their first televised debate this campaign when they meet Tuesday at 7pm at NH1's studios in Concord. The debate will be broadcast live on WBIN-TV.