Sep 29, 2015 12:54 AM
NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: September 29, 2015
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
A prolonged stretch of unsettled weather is ahead. I just do not like the way this is all shaping up. What can you do? It has been a good run. We can definitely use the rain...and we are going to get it! Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day, with a few breaks of sun and maybe a scattered shower or two. It will still be a mild wind from the south so highs again will average above normal in the 70's. A cold front will approach from the west by the end of the day. A steady flow of humidity and tropical moisture will surge ahead of this front. By the time this front begins to push through the region, it will be a trigger for heavy downpours. While most of Tuesday will be fairly quiet, late in the afternoon, mostly after 5 PM..there will be a better chance of scattered showers. By Tuesday night, scattered showers and downpours will start to fill in for areas of heavy rain which will continue into Wednesday along this slowing cold front. The rain should begin to weaken by the end of the day on Wednesday, as the front finally pushes off the coast. We are looking at a widespread 2-4" of rain potential with this first batch, but there is more to come!
With a cold front offshore, Breezy NE winds will follow in behind. Gust to 30 mph will be possible at the coast Wed night into Thursday. Seas will build up to 4-8 feet off the coast. High astronomical tides along with onshore flow could lead to some minor coastal flooding during high tides Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will reside in Canada and wrap in cooler air behind the front. The upper flow will be coming right up the coast so the front will be stalled and will be a trigger for more clouds and showers which could redevelop and ride back up into New Hampshire Later Thursday and Friday. With the breezy NE winds and abundant cloud clover locked in in the dam conditions..Highs will remain chilly and raw in the 50's for much of the rest of the week.
While the heavy rain will be impressive, welcome, and needed...the main weather story has now shifted to Tropical Storm Joaquin...pronounce Wa-KEEN. The National Hurricane Center has this strengthening to 65 mph winds and tracking right up the east coast. There is plenty of warm water this storm will be tracking over, it may even become a minimal hurricane. This is a storm we will have to watch very closely from New Jersey to New England. This will ride up along the stalled front and likely track right into New Jersey or New England. There still remain a variety of options in play and they are all on the table. This storm will come with another round of rain, gusty winds and waves. The more severe impacts of this storm will be felt farther south. My concern is the heavy rain falling during the midweek, with another round of heavy rain on top of that. By the time Sunday ends, there are models showing the potential for 5-8" of rain over the course of the week! This kind of rain will lead to flooding basements, roads, and maybe even some rivers. This would be the time to clear the gutters and get the sump pumps ready!
While there is still plenty of uncertainty on the impacts Joaquin will bring to New England in terms of the wind, rain, intensity, time, placement...some sort of impacts for the northeast is looking more and more likely. It is starting to look like this could be a stronger storm. So it is important to stay tuned to the forecast for the future changes which will be happening. We are still many days out an much can change. It is a wet active pattern. This will be one of the more interesting weeks of weather we have seen in a while!