Oct 27, 2015 12:42 AM
NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: October 27, 2015
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
A frosty start to Tuesday with clear skies and temps in the 20's and lwr 30's. Dress a little warmer heading out the door! High pressure sits right overhead today with sunshine and light WSW winds. Highs by the afternoon will be climbing into the Lwr-mid 50's. All eyes will be focused on a back of rain which promises to provide a nice soaking rainfall for the midweek. October has been a dry month with just over an 1" of total precipitation. This rainfall heading our way is actually the remnants of Hurricane Patricia, so it will have some tropical downpours and plenty of energy to work with.
The low will track from the Gulf of Mexico north right into the Great Lakes. Upper level winds from the SW will direct moist, mild, humid air right up into the Northeast. The leading edge of this tropical air will be in the form of a warm front which will track towards New England on Wednesday. Thickening clouds will start off the day, with the first batch of showers likely arriving to the mid afternoon. Rain will quickly fill in and become heavier during the evening hours. The heaviest rain is likely from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday. A widespread 1-2" rainfall is likely, with the potential for some localized heavier amounts.
It is during this time where we can expect some gusty winds to develop. There will be a strong low level jet of winds racing just above our heads Wednesday night with wind speeds of 60-70 knots. The question is do these strong winds mix down to the ground in any downpours? A lot of this energy should stay in the sky, but gusty SE winds will be out on Wednesday night, making for windswept rains and likely the strongest winds at the coast where gusts to 40-50 mph will be possible.
By the Thursday morning commute, the heaviest rain will be quickly ending and pushing off the coast. The warm front will have lifted through and balmy tropical air along with SW winds will help boost temps into the 60's and Lwr 70's with a few breaks of midday sun! A balmy day. A second cold front will approach by the end of the day. This will mark the leading edge of cooler air trying to return for Friday. A few late day showers could pop along this front later Thursday.
Drier cooler air with sunny to partly sunny skies will be in place for Friday. More diurnal clouds will likely be in place across the northern mountains with the brightest skies closer to the coast. Saturday looks like a great day to celebrate Halloween with sunshine highs in the Lwr-mid 50's. High clouds will increase during the afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are likely for trick or treaters with temperatures in the 40's.
It looks like the first week of November will get off to a mild start with a big upper level ridge becoming established in the eastern half of the nation. You can thank the remnants of Patricia...as she will become a strong mid-latitude cyclone in the North Atlantic and help to slow down the weather pattern and produce more blocking. The cold will remain locked up in Canada. We will be on the more favorable side of the block with warmer air able to shift Northeast under the upper level ridge. But before we get there, another low will be tracking near us Monday with the potential for a few more showers and downpours Monday afternoon and evening. Once that passes through...temps should remain mild through next Friday, before much cooler air arrives by next weekend!