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Oct 1, 2015 11:43 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: October 2, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Our hearts are heavy to see and imagine the devastation left behind by Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin in the Bahamas. Hours and hours of sustained winds of 130 mph as the storms was nearly stationary over the island for close to 12 hours. The combination of wind, rain and surge will likely prove deadly for the islands who had very little warning as the storm slowly backed into the central and southern Bahamas despite forecasts saying it may stay offshore. This is the first Category 4 Hurricane to hit the Bahamas in October in 149 years. Once the sun comes up Friday we will only then understand what happened there.

The remnants of Tropical storm had a big role in helping to push Joaquin farther Southwest. And like a game of shuffleboard, Ida knocked Joaquin out of our danger zone. Instead of a deep upper level trough scooping up the hurricane and directing it into the US coastline, the Upper trough will simply push it out to sea. Most of our models have trended east and off shore and the National Hurricane's Center track for Joaquin has responded with officially taking the track offshore of the United States and out to sea. What a relief. It is hard to explain how close we came to a strong hurricane hitting the US mainland. We escaped by razor-thin margins.

Meanwhile, across the east coast a cold front remains stalled off the coast with a copious flow of moisture streaming along it. The front will be far enough off the coast that most of the rain will be remaining off shore, but close enough clouds will be streaming up along it. High pressure in Canada is wrapping in the cool low-level dry air with a strong gradient of wind from the Northeast with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph at the coast with lighter breezy winds inland. Lots of clouds Friday and Saturday. Enough dry air may penetrate the moist onshore flow Sunday that we may squeeze in some partial sunshine. The next three days will be very chilly for early October Standards with highs in the Lwr-mid 50's and lows in the lwr 40's at night. Fall weather has officially arrived. Dress a bit warmer this weekend and be thankful it is not raining...as there are a lot of places up and down the coast with a worse weekend than us. New Hampshire should do alright...despite the cool, cloudy, breezy conditions.



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