Sep 30, 2015 11:32 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: October 1, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Bye Bye September. It was nice knowing you. The death march towards winter continues. Nice outlook huh? Sorry. It was a warm month. Actually is was the second warmest September on record for Concord with an average temperature of 65.6 degrees. We just were not able to topple the record of 67.1 set in 1961. Oh well there is always next year. I have some great news for you. Despite all the rain, and talk of Hurricanes...our weather here in New Hampshire is going to be pretty decent. A cold front has pushed of the coast. Drying breezes from the NNW will be shifting to the NE Thursday. We will be close enough to the high, and far enough away from the stalled front off the coast that we are going to manages to squeeze our a few dry days as we march towards the weekend! Thursday will be Partly sunny to Mostly cloudy by afternoon. Highs will be range from 58 to 64 degrees. Breezy NE winds will develop at the coast. The gradient from the high to our north and developing low pressure to our south will be steady from now through the weekend. Seas will be building to 8-12 feet off the coast by Sunday. Expected conditions to be a little tougher at the exposed coast, and skies to be a bit brighter inland away from the coast and the stalled front offshore. It is a similar pattern which will take us to the weekend. This time we are at the right place, right latitude at the right time.

Meanwhile, the Tropics are the big show. Hurricane Joaquin has been upgraded to a Cat 3 three storm and could intensify into a Cat 4 storm off the coast of the central Bahamas. Upper level winds will likely scoop this storm and abruptly steer it northward as a major hurricane. There is a plenty of model consensus now of a landfalling Hurricane somewhere between NC and NJ later this weekend. This could have similar impacts of Hurricanes like Floyd or Isabelle. The coastlines in this part of the world are very vulnerable to storm surge flooding as the water will be funneled up the bays and inlets making the surge even higher as the water has nowhere to go. We will also see very heavy rain with this storm as it even could do a loop-di-loop inland making for very bad inland flooding with rain fall totals exceeding 12". A track like the one our models have been showing will be destructive and devastating storm to millions of people. We can hope the forecast changes, but for now hopefully residents are taking this storm seriously and understanding the seriousness of this storm.

As the storm pushes farther north the differences in air pressure between the high to our north, and the hurricane to our south will help winds to pick up through the weekend along with building rough seas. Nothing like what will be happening in the Mid-Atlantic with 30-40 ft seas...but it will not be safe for being on the water. As the low track farther North Monday, rain should start to break out later Sunday through Monday, with another few inches of rain possible, along with stronger winds at the coast. The low will be sitting over us Tuesday and should finally be out of here by Wednesday with temps climbing back to 70


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