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May 5, 2015 9:48 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: May 6, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist - NH1.com

Simply put, our weather is going to be amazing the next few days...especially if you love summer! Still, there are a few things to watch. The Brushfire danger will remain elevated through the end of the week with these warm dry, breezy conditions. Please avoid any outside burning and watch your cigarettes. Humidity will build by the end of the week and at least make for some higher relative humidity. Pollen Count is of course very high as is typical for this time of year, but we are definitely moving into peak allergy season. Also we are watching a developing low off the Florida coastline which is going to rapidly intensify and will likely become our first tropical storm of the season. If it gets a name, it will be T.S. Ana and is expected to be making landfall somewhere on the Carolina coastline likely early Friday morning with some gusty winds and rain.

Meanwhile, back to our summer pattern here at home! A cold front will continue to push a way from New England with building high pressure over us Wednesday with a dry WNW breeze. Highs will be in the mid-upper 70's with sun-filled skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Thursday near 80-85 degrees in the sunshine as the high slides south and off the coast wrapping in a warmer west wind. A Backdoor front will slide down from Maine Friday with cooler onshore winds at the coast Friday keeping temps in the 60's at the beach Friday. It is hard to say how far the sea breeze will penetrate inland...but it will still be plenty warm across the interior with highs in the 70's near 80 with a mix of sun and clouds.

The upper level ridge across the east coast will strengthen over us this weekend with a surge of warmer, more humid air being directed into New England. SW winds will kick out the onshore winds, and temperatures will be climbing into the 80's both Saturday and Sunday. Dewpoints will be climbing into the 60's, so the sultry muggy feel will be in place for Mother's Day Weekend unfortunately. So try to plan to keep mother cool! It will be much appreciated. With the increased moisture in the air, clouds will build and have more available moisture in them. The question is will we see any afternoon thunderstorms like we tend to see in the summer?

As that tropical low moves inland this weekend it will be supplying more moisture and humidity into the overall warm pattern in the Northeast. This means that any storms which could occur could come with some locally heavy rain. For thunderstorms to occur, there needs to be lift in the atmosphere or a trigger. That trigger will be a cold front draped across the Canadian border this weekend, which could be a focus for a few scattered afternoon T'storms, especially across the north country.

Where that front sets up, and how far south into New England this pushes this weekend is still in question. It will have a huge factor in the amount of scattered T-storms we see, and also how warm the temperatures get. If the front pushes farther into Northern New England this weekend scattered t'storms will locally heavy rain could be possible with temperatures eventually becoming cooler heading into next week. If the front remains farther north, as the ridge holds temperatures will be warmer in the mid-upper 80's and the heat could hold right into Monday. Eventually more widespread scattered showers and storms and rain will break down the unseasonal warmth by Late Monday or Tuesday. I leaned on the warmer side for now because the tropical low could help to slow down the progression of this front and keep the ridge firmly in place this weekend. We'll see how this plays out. Temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday could have big swings in temperatures because of precipitation and windshift...or lack there of....


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