May 18, 2015 11:54 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: May 19, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Scattered showers with periodic heavy downpours will be crossing New Hampshire Tuesday morning. Sometimes the showers will be light with a break in the action, but periodically there will be a batch of heavier rain which will have us running for the cars or for our umbrellas. These showers are part of a weakened complex of thunderstorms which moved through PA and NY yesterday. These showers are also part of a warm front which will start to push through New Hampshire during the afternoon. I expect showers to be completely over by lunchtime, and then the clouds should begin to break in the afternoon as we get into the warm sector with SW winds behind the warm front. If this all goes as planned, then highs will warm up in a big way during the afternoon with highs climbing into the Lwr-mid 70's. Any breaks of afternoon sun, will help to destabilize the atmosphere, the warmer air will begin to rise ahead of an approaching cold front. If temperatures are able to warm into the mid 70's with some partial sun, we will have a chance for scattered T'storms to pop along this cold front during the hours of 4- 7 PM. The best chance of any stronger storm forming will likely be in western New Hampshire away from the coast line.

But again, this has to all go as planned. As we know, when it comes to weather, slight changes in temperature or wind can mean big changes from the forecast to what actually happens. If the warm front get hung up with lingering showers and clouds through the midday, this reduce our chances of a stronger late day storm. It is very possible. It really could go either way. I am leaning more showers for the morning, and less of a risk for a strong to severe storm to develop in the afternoon. We'll see. Very sunshine dependent! One thing is for sure...we need to get as much rain as possible, because this will be our last chance for a while! I would expect rainfall totals Tuesday to range from .10-.75". It will all depend if you find yourself under a batch of steady rain/downpour. If a thunderstorm happens to hold together, and goes over your home with a soaking rain consider yourself blessed. It is going to be one of those days. Get it while you can!

Once the cold front pushes off the coast Tuesday night, drier and cooler air will be on the move for Wednesday. A trough with a cool pool of air will return to the Northeast with sunshine and building afternoon clouds and breezy WNW winds. Seasonably cool temps in the 60's will take us through the rest of the week with more stable air arriving Thursday and Friday with more sunshine. A weak front will push through Friday which will bring in another round of cooler air for Saturday. It will not be a summery feel to the start of the Memorial Day weekend, but temperatures will begin to warm as the trough lifts away along with a building and flattening ridge in place along the eastern half of the nation. It really looks like just amazing stretch of comfortable weather with pleasant day, crisp evenings, low humidity and temperatures feeling more summery as the weekend progresses by Sunday and Monday.


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