Jan 26, 2016 12:38 AM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: January Thaw Has Arrived

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Could this be considered the "January Thaw"? It seems like every year there is a time in January where the cold eases and we get a prolonged stretch with temperatures above 32. Not every year has one, and it can arrive on different weeks. But I would say more often than not, there is a January thaw and this has the makings of it. After 6 straight days in the 20's, Sunday broke through into the 30's we should have highs above 32 right through the end of the month! We are not talking about 50's or some crazy warmth like that, but a few days will be in the 40's which will be a welcome break from the winter chill.

Tuesday will start off with a little sunshine, but clouds will be increasing during the midday and afternoon along with an approaching cold front. Winds will pick up from the SW ahead of the front, but will deliver a more mild airmass into the region with highs climbing into the Lwr-mid 40's. As clouds thicken, we could see a spot afternoon shower or snow shower across the north country. The cold front will push off the coast Tuesday Night. Wednesday will be slightly cooler with highs in the 30's to near 40. Early sun fades to increasing clouds with another cold front pushing through. Again, a few snow showers in the mountains. This front will bring in even cooler air for Thursday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the Lwr-mid 30's.

There has been talk for another chance of snow at the end of the week. I don't see it happening. We are tracking two pieces of energy...one over the Great Lakes Thursday and a wave of low pressure along a stalled front off the Carolinas. If these two pieces of energy were to merge off the coast and form a bigger storm closer to New England, we may have a chance. But the latest guidance shows these two lows remaining separate and eventually merging into a stronger storm over the Canadian Maritimes. For us, it is a little too little, too late for any storm to form, but we will watch for any future changes.

We can expect the one low from the Great Lakes to arrive Thursday night and Friday and could trigger a few scattered snow showers and flurries. Minor accums will be possible in the mountains Thursday night. Not so much elsewhere. A few more pieces of energy will be spinning through Northern New England over the course of the weekend as another round of milder air will start to move back towards the North east. We could see a few more snow showers Saturday with a weak wave of low pressure tracking across the Canadian border. Nothing big here, mos accums will be in the mountains. Temps will rise into the 30's Saturday and even back into the 40's Sunday with SW winds and the low tracks NW of New England.

If you are wondering when the next shot of Arctic air will be? You are going to have to wait until February 5th or 6th before any real cold get back involved with the pattern. That shot of cold should help to re-energize the jetstream and make the weather a bit more interesting for the snow fanatics who are feeling a little down lately from the lack of snow.

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