Jan 7, 2016 11:42 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: January 8, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Friday is starting off a little slick in spots where some patchy fog formed during the overnight hours. Areas of black ice are possible before 8 AM. Morning sunshine will be fading behind an increasing deck of over cast skies which will be spreading farther inland during the midday through the afternoon thanks to a NE wind direction off the water. Highs will be cooler in the 30's because of the increased cloud cover and onshore flow. Clouds may thicken enough by the end of the day that patchy drizzle may form at the coast near the evening commute.

A warm front will approach the Northeast Friday night with a batch of showers, which will be changing into snow showers and sleet as it arrives in New Hampshire after midnight Friday night. Temperatures will be dropping into the 20's early Saturday morning at the surface, but warmer air will be moving in over our heads. This could make for a very light, but icy mix of sleet and freezing drizzle Saturday morning across New Hampshire with mostly snow showers in the hills. This will be a very light icy mix which should not be a big problem, but we should expect some icy travel in the morning, with some drizzle lingering in the afternoon with temps in the 30's. As the warm front gets closer Saturday night, another batch of sleet and light rain will develop later Saturday night, and simply fill in from there.

A strong low will be tracking west of New England Sunday. Upper level winds from the SW, along with an approaching cold front will direct a significant slug of rain into New Hampshire starting Sunday morning with the heaviest rain in the morning through the midday, and lasting into the afternoon. A few brief heavy downpours will be possible. A quick inch of rain will fall. Gusty ESE winds will come with the rain where gusts could get up to 40 mph! Mild air will arrive with the rain and wind as temps will climb into the 40's near 50. Overall, it is just not a great outdoor weekend unfortunately, so you may have to come up with alternative plans...STAR WARS for the 5th time! Yeah!

Cooler NW breezes will direct cooler drier air back into New Hampshire to start the week. Temps will fall back into the 30's. There is a risk for some snow showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but it appears the northern and southern streams will not phase enough together to get storm development. So just light snow showers are possible through the mid week. That energy will merge off shore and become a stronger low in the Canadian maritimes. A blocking pattern will develop towards the end of the week, with a buckling jetstream and trough in the northeast, cold air spilling into much of the nation. A significant piece of energy will ride the subtropical jetstream, and merge with the colder polar stream and possibly, make for a more significant storm off the coast for next weekend.

This is not the first time our models have shown strong storms in the long range. Most of the time, I take them with a grain of salt know that by the time we get to the weather over 7 days away, it is usually much different than what models were showing. That's the business. But we have been seeing consistent trends in the models for coastal development in the Jan 17th-18th time frame, the NAO is finally going negative around that time which tend to promote cold and troughs in the northeast, plus warm sea surface temperatures off the east coast could play a role in helping make for explosive strengthening of storms off the coast if everything comes together just right. That is the key. It is like a perfect cake. All the ingredients have to come together perfectly at the right time. We will keep a close eye on this weekend with a mindful eye to next weekend. Could it be our first Nor'easter of the season. It is going to happen sooner than later as we are moving into the heart of winter and there are numerous players on the board!


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