Jan 28, 2016 11:47 PM
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
Consider this January Thaw...Halftime. The first half of winter has been a pretty easy walk through the park all things considered. We have controlled the clock and the weather not gotten out of control. So far for the season, Concord has seen about 12" of snow, below average for this time of year. So now we find ourselves in a thawing period where afternoon temperatures are above freezing, while nights can fall below 32. It will turn mild. It is storm free. It is quiet...almost too quiet. No doubt...The atmosphere is reloading. El nino has peaked and is weakening. The weather has had some pretty amazing releases of built up energy from the warmth el nino has put into system...from the Blizzard of 2016 to the Tropical storm in January in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. There is still more energy that needs to be released...it is just building, along with the Arctic air which remains trapped up in Canada. There is a second half of winter and still plenty of weather to be had. Don't expect an easy ride from here on out!
Enjoy the now. Today, we are watching one low pulling off the coast, and becoming a stronger storm in the open water far enough away from New England to spare us any issues. Meanwhile, a weaker low will be crossing New England bringing clouds and the potential for scattered afternoon snow showers and flurries. The best chance of accumulating snow will be in the mountains where a few inches of snow could fall. Otherwise, it is a few snow showers for the rest of us during the afternoon-early evening which could create a quick coating of snow for some, some light rain may mix in right at the coast with warmer temps right down at the ground. As the low pulls away, any snow will taper off with breezy cooler NW winds with overnight clearing Friday night.
The weekend will start off with a little sunshine, but clouds will increase ahead of a warm front Saturday which could be a trigger for a few late day snow showers into the early evening of Saturday night. Again the best chance of snow showers will be across the north country. Once the warm front pushes through, milder SW winds will push temps back into the 40's Sunday with partly sunny skies. A weak cold front will push through Monday with a few clouds and or a shower with temps in the lwr 50's. Temps will be a bit cooler Tuesday behind the front but still above the average well into the 40's near 50 with mostly sunny skies. A low will track west of New England Wednesday and direct a slug of rain and wind into the Northeast with temperatures surging back into the 50's and approaching record warmth for some.
Once this low departs, that is the end of the thaw. The doors will be open for cold Arctic air to spill in from Canada and a deep persistent trough will become established across the northeast with temperatures likely running below normal from much of the rest of the month of February. In the fall and early winter, the thinking was for February to be the coldest and snowiest month of the winter. That is still possible. We are seeing the cold, and with the cold is coming a change in the jetstream and the potential for more storm formation, and a higher chance for more snow.
We still have a few more minutes in halftime. So get a cold drink, kick your feet up relax. We have a second half of winter ahead. But it is nothing we have never done before. Let's go!
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