Jan 15, 2016 12:48 AM
NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: January 15, 2015
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
A FIRST ALERT WEATHER WARNING for Saturday as a very complex, evolving batch of weather will be crossing through the region. Friday will be dry with abundant cloud cover, and light onshore winds. Temperatures will climb near 30-35 by afternoon, but then fall back into the 20's. Clouds will be thickening and pockets of some freezing drizzle may begin to develop during the evening.
As we know, we are tracking two pieces of energy which are converging upon the northeast. One in the Great Lakes tracking NW of New England, and another slug of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico which will turn into a deepening storm and track near the benchmark SE of Nantucket. While it will be come a stronger storm, most of it's energy will remain off shore. Still, the combination of these two lows will provide the necessary lift in the atmosphere and moisture to form a wintry mix for New Hampshire.
The mix will be arriving during the early pre-dawn hours of Saturday with a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Just about everything, depending upon where you are. The deeper cold will be across the far north which should remain all snow in the northern mountains with the potential of up to 6" or more of snow. The problem on Saturday will be the lack of deep cold air and it's supply. While it will be cold enough at the onset early Saturday, warm air will be moving in aloft with a rapidly advancing snow/rain line into New Hampshire changing any mix over to rain across SNH, with an icy mix across some interiors.
The heaviest precipitation will happen during the morning hours. Slippery travel will be in place across the the North country with snow covered roads, and also ares of freezing rain farther south in the foothills and valleys of the mountains. The good thing is this will be a fast moving storm with the precipitation tapering off during the afternoon. Most of it will be over by 4 PM Saturday, with lingering snows in the mountains. Some of our models are printing out some heftier amounts of snow in the North and west, which could definitely be possible especially if the cold is stronger and holds. Accumulation could happen farther south towards the Lakes region where up to 2-3" of snow could fall. My concern for the warm air air moving in aloft creating more mixing and keeping accumulations down. We will continue to keep you up to date of any changes. While I have may question on exact accumulations in western NH, I feel very confident the White Mountains should do quite well from this easily seeing 6 inches or more of snow. Playing conservative for now.
Drier, and cooler winds will return Saturday night & Sunday with some partial sunshine. We will have to really focus our attention on another disturbance sliding in from the Great Lakes. This will be a weak clipper, but a low will be generating off the NH coastline early Monday morning. I am expecting a heavy band of snow to be in place across the state just in time for the morning commute which could end up being a real bear for commuters. There is the potential for several inches of snow to fall out of this mesoscale band of enhanced lift which will sit over us most of the morning. It is a ways out, but the signals are there for sure!
Behinds that disturbance is a blast of Arctic air with breezy NW winds Monday through Wednesday keeping temps in the Lwr-mid 20's and wind chills feeling even colder. A quiet week of weather ahead next week. Stay tuned to updating forecasts as there is still plenty of changes which can happen in a very short period.