Jan 21, 2016 11:47 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: It's a dry, cool weekend in NH despite mid-Atlantic storm

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Well, I have to admit...I don't envy the meteorologists from Boston to NYC to DC. This forecast has many challenges, and it is a high stakes game of poker with mother nature. Jobs and reputations are on the line in storms like these. Everyone wants to know what is going to happen and how much we are going to get. They want you to be right. But no one except the meteorologist really understands how much goes into getting an accurate forecast in a storm like this as there are so many variables is play...from upper level winds, to moisture, temperature, lift, timing, track. No one wants to hear excuses. They just want it right. High stakes meteorology! You have to love the game, and just like football, you can't play scared.

Not much has changed from our forecast of the storm missing New Hampshire. BUT some of our models Thursday night started to trend a bit further north with the heavy shield of snow spreading farther north towards New York City and into Southern New England from CT, to RI and SE MA. There is a real bust potential here if this storm suddenly ramps up and tracks farther north. If that were to happen heavier amounts of snow would fall, and earlier forecasts of lighter amounts of snowfall would go down the tubes with plenty of people caught by surprise. New information will continue to come in Friday. We will be watching to see if the models who have been trending south...stay south...or do they start to trend north. We'll see. Whatever the trend, our confidence is high that New Hampshire should not be impacted by this storm.

As we know by now, this will be a major winter storm for the mid-Atlantic states with a widespread 1-3 feet of snow falling across major metropolitan areas with millions of people being impacted. Moisture is tracking out of the Gulf where energy will shift to the Carolina coastline and become a bigger storm and generate waves 10-20 feet off the coast. This storm will generate strong NE winds which will help to push these large waves towards the coastline. The full moon will help to create abnormally high tides, so the timing is coming together for the potential for moderate to major coastal flooding along the New Jersey& Delaware coastlines. The winds will be powerful with gusts to 50-60 mph. There will be the potential for widespread power outages which could last for days. It is a serious storm which could have serious consequences for anyone not prepared or taking unnecessary risks.

Here in New Hampshire, we are living easy this weekend. High pressure is close enough to us that it is keeping the snow away. If any snow tries to push past the MA pike, the dry air is so deep it will likely evaporate the snow, cool the air, and prevent the snow from pushing any further north. Temps will remain seasonally cool over the weekend. Morning sunshine will fade to increasing afternoon clouds. Temps will start of cold in the single digits and climb into the 20's for the afternoon. Any clouds associated with the storm will be pulling away Sunday morning with more sunshine in the forecast and highs climbing into the Lwr 30's. Temps will not be as cold next week. Stay tuned to NH1 news for future updates also follow me @joejoyceNH1 on twitter for the latest weather information.


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