Feb 2, 2016 1:49 AM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: February 2, 2016

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

Nothing like a Groundhog being taken for a weather forecast! But it is one day a year, and it is always good for a laugh. I have feeling he will see his shadow because of the sunshine, which would mean 6 more weeks of winter. Whatever the Groundhog says, you can bet this winter still has plenty more to give before leaving for the Spring! Remember how I said this January thaw was like halftime? Let's consider this February 2nd...a perfect place to Kickoff the second half! The Groundhog says "Let's play ball!"

High pressure builds in for Tuesday with sunshine and slightly cooler temperatures compared to the balmy 50's of Monday. Light NNW winds will help to keep high temps in the afternoon in the Lwr-mid 40's with mostly sunny skies.

A strong low pressure system will be tracking into the Great Lakes with a cold front being directed into the Northeast for Wednesday. This will be the big weather even for this week at least. The precipitation will be arriving during the early morning of Wednesday, the coldest part of the day. There will likely be a burst of snow and sleet around dawn on Wednesday, before any mix begins to change to rain. The colder air will hang on longer across the north country where there will be the potential of seeing 3-6" of snow in the mountains, before any mix to sleet and rain during the midday-afternoon. So despite, a wintry start, most of us will be changing to rain fairly quickly Wednesday. Some of the foothills could experience a bit of an icy morning across the north country. SSE winds at the surface will help to push the snow/rain line through New Hampshire, so most of the state will experience a rainy afternoon. The rain will be winding down Wednesday night, but light rain and drizzle & fog will linger through midnight. There is the potential for .50-1.5" of rainfall in the time period of 5 AM Wed-12 AM Thurs.

Once the cold front pushes through, drier air will return on a NW breeze Thursday with clearing skies and increasing sunshine. Temps will be starting off mild near 40, so they will not have to go far to climb back into the 40's with a little sunshine. Cooler air will begin to return Thursday night with the setting sun. Friday will be a cooler day in the mid 30's with a batch of cooler Canadian air sitting overhead. The weekend looks fairly quiet with temps in the 30's likely. Saturday will start off with sunshine, which will fade behind some late day clouds. A weak cold front will slide through Saturday night and early Sunday. This could trigger a few mountain snow showers at dawn Sunday. Cooler NW breezes will be in place Sunday with highs in the Lwr-mid 30's.

While temperatures will average above normal for much of the week, there are signs that next week will become colder. A deep trough will be pushing farther south. This will allow colder air to return to the eastern half of the US after a mild stretch. SW flow of air up the east coast will help to direct a few lows up the coast as they ride the boundary between the newly arrived cold air and the departing mild air. This boundary will set up right at the coast line.

There have been hints for some sort of storm to come up the coast sometime between the 8th and 10th. It does not look like a huge storm if it were to hit. There are still questions with track, temperature, moisture, and model resolutin this far out. We are watching next week for the potential of some accumulating snow with a low coming up the coast...If the low were to hit, it could create a moderate snowfall for New Hampshire, mixing with rain will be possible depending upon track...or it could be a bunch of nothing. We'll be watching next week for you so stay tuned. Beyond that, there should be plenty of cold around for the second week of February which will help to keep the active storm track going!


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