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Dec 15, 2015 11:37 PM

NH1 Weather Insider with Joe Joyce: December 16, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

A nice sunny Wednesday with lighter winds, but a cooler airmass will be in place. High pressure sliding down from Canada will supply the dry stable air and sunshine with highs in the mid 40's by afternoon. Temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, but still running 10 degrees above the norm for this time of year in the mid 30's. A high pressure pulls off the coast Wednesday night, low clouds off the ocean will be directed in towards New England. The clouds will thicken for a cloudy start to Thursday. A steady drizzle should begin by the midday with a SE wind at the surface.

We will be tacking a steady batch of rain which will approach for the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. The rain will become heavier during the later afternoon and evening, and likely last through much of Thursday night as the front will be slowing over us. A wave of low pressure will ride up along this front, and could help to slow down the inclement weather. Rain will redevelop over Southern New England Friday, some of these showers could work their way up the seacoast of NH to help to keep it cloudy and damp at the beaches. I expect brighter skies further inland Friday. Still low clouds could be an issue across eastern NH Friday with highs in the 40's near 50.

Colder air will dive in from Canada with an upper level trough and mark the return of a more typical December airmass for New Hampshire. Breezy NW Saturday with sun and clouds and highs in the 30's near 40. I would not be surprised to see the lake effect snow machine over the Great Lakes get started. We may even see a few flurries on Saturday come out of some thicker building clouds, as another weak front will push through at sunset and bring in colder air in the mid 20's Saturday night and early Sunday. Sunday will be the brighter and calmer of the weekdays with highs still in the 30's and lwr 40's. Temperatures will be cold enough for serious snow making in the mountains this weekend as area resorts try to make themselves somewhat presentable for weekend skiers. What a challenging start to the ski season so far!

A warmer pattern will return for next week with the Arctic air still locked in Canada and out west. A surge of warmer air will be directed up the east coast by next Wednesday and Thursday. This could end up being one of the warmest Christmas' on record if the warm air can hold. There will be a energized cold front on the move which will bring periodic rain Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for embedded storms. Temperatures will be climbing into 50's and 60's. The rain and clouds could help prevent the mild air from reaching it's full warm potential. There is also a question of how quick the rain and the front will pass? Will Christmas be rainy and warm to start, or will the front be through with a mostly dry, breezy cooler day. The timing remains an issue. It is so far away....we can expect more changes. This mild pattern little signs of letting up. Brief cold shots followed be returns of mild air. No signs of any snow for the rest of the month of December.

It's a super El Nino year which is helping to dominate the weather pattern so far. If looking at other years with strong El Ninos is any indicator, you see that our chances of having snowfall average below normal this are quite good. Normal snowfall for a season is about 60". A forecast of snow between 25-40" for the season sounds about right.

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Concord, NH
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