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Jul 2, 2015 11:48 PM

NH1 Weather Insider: Not So Perfect Holiday Weekend

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

No one ever said forecasting the weather easy. The moment you think you have a forecast locked down, you can expect it to change. Pouring over the latest weather data, there are some changes to the weekend forecast...most of the changes are for the worse unfortunately. That said, most of the time the weather should be just fine, just not as perfect as previously advertised! The problem is a stalled front south of New England. It all reminds me of the Nor'easter from last weekend. What initially looked like a dry weekend, suddenly had a very rainy look. We ended up with 2-4" of rain and winds 30+mph at the coast! Sometimes our computer models struggle on how to handle certain pieces of energy in the atmosphere. Atmospheric blocking can slow patterns down and allow more buckling to the jetstream helping storms to form. This week had a similar look with waves of low pressure on a stalled front tracking south of New England. High pressure keeps it south of us...we have a nice weekend! Boom! Not quite!

High pressure is going to make for a sparkling Friday with sunshine and highs in the 70's and Lwr 80's by the afternoon. Light WNW will warm the beaches. It will be the best beach day of the holiday weekend. The latest guidance is showing a low pressure system on the stalled front will come a little closer to us on the 4th of July. Early morning sun will fade to clouds. By noon, cloudy skies will be the rule. Winds will shift to the SE bring in a cooler flow in off the 60 degree water. Temps at the beaches on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies will be near 70 on the 4th of July. Not picture perfect. Meanwhile in the afternoon, there is even a risk of a few showers popping up. One model came in wet Thursday afternoon. I am not ready to go there. I need to see some more model agreement before I pull the trigger on saying showers for July 4th afternoon. Still, there is a trend towards that direction. This is a risk of a few showers...but they should not be very heavy, and passing. Unlike last weekends washout.

The clouds will likely stick around for the fireworks with temperatures in the 60's. Clouds my try to start to break a little by 10 PM. A weak cold front will be pushing through on Sunday, a few clouds are possible along with this as well. This front could trigger a shower in the north country. Sunday will have a wind shift to the WNW which will help to warm us up along with break up the clouds. I expect a partly sunny Sunday with highs in the Lwr 80's. More sunshine settles in for Monday and Tuesday with warmer temps in the Lwr-mid 80's. Watch out for the end of next week, and next weekend....It looks like we could be moving into a wetter pattern at that time. But as we know with the weather...the long range forecasts can change on a dime! Heck, sometimes even getting tomorrow's forecast right can be a challenge...forget about 7 days out! Have a wonderful holiday weekend with the friends and family! We are so blessed to live in the best country in the world!

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