Aug 4, 2015 12:37 AM
NH1 Weather Insider For Tuesday August 4, 2015
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
It is so sad to see what transpired in Lancaster, NH Monday. Our hearts and thoughts go to the families who lost family members and hope to those who may have been seriously injured in the tent collapse. It shows the importance of Public safety at events like this regarding severe weather and the quick decisions and actions which need to happen in a few short moments. This requires a plan by the organization holding the event responsible to keep the public safe. Obviously, there was no plan to stay in an approaching storm or the crowd of 100 would have been evacuated. The storm was moving fast no doubt. The Severe Thunderstorm was issued by NWS Gray at 5:23 PM. The storm struck with damaging winds in excess of 58 mph between 5:35 and 5:40 PM. Just over 10 minutes of warning. Not much. Again having a plan is critical...but you can not always rely on people to take care of you. I find it is best to always look out for yourself and your family. Be weatherwise. Know the forecast set up for the day. If the afternoon is calling for thunderstorms, keep an eye on the radar. These days, we all have our own personal radars in our pockets on our cell phones. Weather Apps issue warnings and alerts of incoming weather. There really is no excuse to be caught off guard. Simply be aware, and prepared to act quickly. Think to yourself what "where will I go if a storm were to hit right now?" Tents are not safe shelter from storms obviously. Neither are Gazebos, Dugouts, Trees or any other object providing cover for your head. It needs to be an enclosed shelter, preferably a sturdy building or a car if necessary.
Tuesday will be another warm muggy day, with a similar setup to Monday's. Sunny to Partly sunny skies, warm 80's with SW wind and high humid dewpoints in the 60's. This is a high energy, bouyant environment in place. A weak front approaches New England and will likely trigger a few more scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the potential for a few to become strong or severe between the hours of 3 PM-8 PM again. We will be tracking any developments here on NH1 News. This front will be the deal breaker, breaking down the warm, humid air and bringing in a cooler and less Humid airmass for Wednesday with winds shifting from warm SW, to more comfortable NW direction.
While the weather will be cooler and drier for the midweek, we will still remain slightly unstable for Wednesday. Cooler air aloft above our heads thanks to an upper Low in Canada, will allow clouds to build with the heating of the day, and the potential of a few pop up afternoon showers or a thunderstorm. Highs will be in the 70's near 80. Seasonally cooler air will remain to end the week with temps in the 70's and sunshine, building clouds Thursday into Friday.
Big questions remain on the weekend outlook. Earlier model runs have been showing strong wave of low pressure for this time of year tracking on a stalled front south of New England which could provide a period of showers and low clouds locked in with onshore wind keeping temps in 60's to mid 70's inland. Latest info Monday night took that low farther south into the Carolinas sparing New England the impacts. Too early for confidence. We will have to watch the trends to see how the weekend eventually starts to look. We will start to get a better idea soon.
I can tell you the first half of August is not looking very warm. A trough pattern looks to persist in the Northeast keeping the hot airway from us at least through August 17th. After that? It would seem to make sense the bottled up warm to the west would eventually make a return back into the Northeast for the 20th-30th of August period. We will see on that as well. In meteorology, you have to stick with what you know. Let's just work on getting today right!