Aug 5, 2015 11:38 PM
NH1 Weather Insider For Thursday August 6, 2015
Oh boy, we have some really nice pleasant weather ahead, but we are going to have to keep an eye on the weekend for possible changes to the forecast. It is going to be close, but I will remain optimistic until further notice. For now, Thursday will be absolutely beautiful with sunshine, a west wind at 10-20 mph and highs in the 70's with low humidity. The upper low remains to our north in Canada, so there will still be the potential for afternoon cumulus development, but no chance of showers this time. Most clouds will be closer to the mountains with most sunshine by the sea. Just a great beach day with sunshine and temps near 80.
Much more of the same on Friday with high pressure to our west and a WNW wind at the surface. Highs will again be in the 70's with sunny to partly sunny skies and very comfortable air in place. Delightful summer evenings, with lows dropping into the 50's overnight with even some 40's in the mountains and valleys.
Now the weekend. High pressure to our north, low pressure tacking off the mid-Atlantic states to our south. Upper level trough across the NE steering a SW flow up the coast. This flow will direct a low towards New England, but should remain far enough off the coast that we will remain dry on Saturday. The SW flow will also keep a front stalled off the coast, so another low will track along it an may come closer to New England Sunday. One of our models has this low tracking over Cape Cod and bringing cool, rainy conditions late Saturday and Sunday. I am not ready to buy into that solution...as most of the other information we have has the low just far enough offshore to spare NH the cool rainy effects. It is going to be close and we will have to watch for trends on how our models are behaving the next day or two.
Personally, I have a fair amount of confidence that the high to our north will supply the dry stable air and the upper level winds will steer this low just far enough south and east of New England. Any farther trend closer to New England could mean bad news for the weekend...so we will watch. For now, It will be a mix of clouds and sun Saturday & Sunday with temps in the 70's. The combo of the high to our north and low to the south will wrap in a cooler NE wind which will keep temps in the lwr 70's at the beach. If I had to pick a day with more clouds, it would be Sunday. In fact, I have concerns of low clouds backing in off the water making a mostly cloudy day Sunday....especially across eastern NH and at the coast. So moral of the story....nothing is nailed in stone for the weekend yet. I am optimistic for plenty of dry, comfortable pleasant weather on Saturday. Sunday is the day where we could end up not seeing the best weather depending on the lows track.
Monday will see the low pull away and some weak upper level ridging which will bring more sunshine. We will lose the sea breeze with a warmer wind developing. Another slow moving front will arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday with another trough digging inot the Northeast. This set up well give us a better chance of a soaking rain sometime during the midweek.