Sep 28, 2016 11:35 PM
NH1 First Alert Weather: Tracking Weekend Showers and the Tropics
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
Dry conditions in place Thursday along with sunshine for most of the forecast area. High pressure flexing it's muscle in Canada is supplying low level dry stable air. Mostly sunny to Partly sunny skies can be expected with highs in the 60's inland. A cool onshore wind from the NE will keep temps near 60 at the coast. Despite High pressure being close enough to Northern New England to give us two days of mostly dry and seasonably cooler weather, we must be mindful of the cut-off upper low to our west. This continues to steer a flow of clouds and showers up the east coast. As it finally gets on the move eastward, it will provide a better chance of showers reaching New England this weekend. The impacts of this upper low will linger into the start of next week. As is often the case with cutoffs, confidence is generally low as to when the low will dissolve as a number of high amplitude ridges remain in place across the northern hemisphere preventing forward progression in the pattern. The good news is that despite the variability in the low center through the weekend, northern New England will remain on the periphery of the system allowing for just a chance for showers and storms.
Clouds begin to re-advance northward as a northeasterly flow gradually veers to the east with time. Clouds increase after midnight Thursday night. The cut off low to our south will steer increasing clouds Friday and a chance of showers across southern New England and as far north as the southern portion of New Hampshire later in the day. Most of Friday will remain dry, but cooler in the 50's and Lwr 60's.
By Saturday, even though dry air will try to hold strong with the high to our north, Clouds and showers will creep farther northward through the day on Saturday. Along the coast, onshore flow may result is some fog/drizzle/low clouds. Saturday afternoon-evening into early Sunday morning appears to be the window for the best chance of some steadier showers.
Sunday morning will start off a bit damp, but inland locations will see an improvement in conditions on Sunday as high pressure nudging in from New Brunswick keeps the showers at bay everywhere except the for immediate coastline where onshore flow continues with drizzle and light showers.
Monday - Tuesday: By the start of next week the cut off low tries to get absorbed back into the main jetstream flow. Here the uncertainty increases . Expect we will see a period of precipitation as the disturbance moves over us and off to the east but timing is hard to pin down at this point. There will be a chance of a shower Monday. Low clouds and drizzle could last into Tuesday with cooler temps and onshore winds.
In the long range, all eyes are focused on the tropics where we are watching Tropical Storm Matthew which is sure to become Hurricane Matthew. Our 13th names storm of the season, could end up being one of our strongest storms of the season. It will be tracking west over some very warm water across the eastern Caribbean which should aid in rapid intensification. The storm will eventually near Category 2 strength with winds over 100 mph as it nears Cuba. Our models are having this storm tracking up the east coast of the United States later next week. Some models have this striking the US, some have the storm riding out to sea. Hopefully the storm will stay off the coast, because were this storm were to strike the eastern seaboard anywhere from the Carolinas to New England, it could be one of the stronger hurricanes we have seen in many years. It is way to early to tell with any certainty how it will play out, but you can be sure we will be watching this storm every step of the way and providing you with any information you will need to know.