NOAA

Oct 5, 2016 1:26 PM

NH1 First Alert Weather: Latest path shows Matthew not a threat to NH

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

The latest runs have come out in regard to now Category 3 Hurricane Matthew with 120 mph winds. Matthew weakened as it crossed the tip of SE Cuba last night. The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days. After that time, wind shear is forecast to increase, resulting in gradual weakening as Matthew hugs and tracks up the Southeast US Coast.

The good news for us is the trend continues to follow our thinking from yesterday that this storm was going to track far enough south of New England to spare us any impacts. unfortunately that means we will be missing out on the rain...but a good weekend ahead can be expected now. We watch a variety of models which estimate which track this storm will eventually take. We show you all these models on Spaghetti Charts to show you if there is a widespread of uncertainty or if there is model consensus to where the storm may track.

Yesterday, early in the day some of the models had the storm tracking close to New England. The National Hurricane Center had the "Cone of Uncertainty" up into Southern New England. I did not believe that and favored a more southern track. Our Euro model has been once again leading the way, and all other models are now following. The trend farther south started yesterday, and continues this morning. Now, all of our models agree on Matthew hugging the Southeast coast where it will then track off the coast of the Carolinas and possible do a loop-de-loop and weaken next week. The concern is for a tremendous amount of rain, strong winds, coastal flooding from West Palm Beach up through the Carolinas affecting millions of people from Friday into the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure will suppress the storm away from the northeast and keep us mainly dry this weekend, despite a few showers Saturday with a passing cold front. Feeling much more confident in the atmospheric set up when we have all models on the same page.

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