Oct 3, 2016 4:50 PM
Matthew, a major Category 4 hurricane, threatens Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas in the next few days, before potentially moving up the East Coast later this week.
The latest track from the National Hurricane Center takes the center of the storm through the Bahamas during the day on Wednesday, as a Category 3 hurricane.
Thereafter, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the storm's path.
Some of today's computer models have trended closer to Florida, putting the state's Atlantic coast at risk.
By next weekend, the timing of an incoming disturbance in the jet stream and the forward speed of Matthew will be very important to the storm's track.
There is good agreement in today's computer models that the storm may come close enough to the Carolinas to bring heavy rain and strong winds, especially to coastal areas, on Friday and Saturday. These areas are in the National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone, seen above.
Two of the most prominent computer models, the GFS (American) model and the European model, show vastly different tracks of the storm this weekend, after passing by the Carolinas.
The probability of a direct landfall in New England remains low, but not zero.
The GFS projects a disturbance in the jet stream will capture the storm, and pull it northward toward New England. This track would bring a beneficial rainfall to the entire region, with the potential for strong winds along the coastline, if the storm maintains strength and the center passes near the region.
Meanwhile, the European model offers a slower and offshore track. However, even in this scenario, some of the storm's tropical moisture could make it into New England later Sunday into early next week.
Looking at the spaghetti plot, or numerous model tracks on one map, it is clear there are two camps.
Some track the storm near Nantucket, and another cluster of models track the storm far offshore.
Stay tuned for important updates from NH1 First Alert Weather throughout the week.
For now, the scenarios range from a soaking, windswept rainfall as early as Saturday, to a later arrival of only scattered showers as the storm passes far offshore. Either way, it is likely the seacoast will see higher surf and rip currents over the weekend.
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