Jul 28, 2016 11:25 PM
NH1 First Alert Weather: Humid showers in NH Friday but a good weekend
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
A very humid Friday ahead, but at least it will be cooler with a light NE wind. A cold front has pushed through NH over night and is stalled along the south coast. A low will develop around the mid-Atlantic and move northwards passing between the benchmark and Cape Cod. Our models have come into good agreement on the low track however there is still some spread in the northward extent of the precipitation shield. While this low will be strong for the time of year, it is lacking in some atmospheric dynamics that typically drive the heavier precipitation patterns northwest of a low center in winter. Without these dynamics, expect the precipitation to be more convectively driven and thus remain south of the sagging front... keeping most of the precipitation in Massachusetts. Have thus pulled the northward extend of the precipitation back a bit. At the same time the juicier summer airmass does have the potential to create heavy rain in localized areas in downpours. It is hard to pin point where in NH we could see a few of these downpours pop up, because they will be extremely scattered, but the closer you are to MA the better chance you will have. Some may not see much at all. Either way I would not expect much more than a .25" to .50" of rain today. Clouds along with periodic showers will help to keep temps in the 70's to Lwr 80's compared to the scorching 90's of the past week. Heaviest rain will be staying south of New Hampshire.
As the low pulls away, drier less humid air will be returning Friday night with a gradual clearing late Friday night. High pressure in Canada will provide a drying, warming NW wind on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies can be expected Saturday. It will be the pick of the weekend with highs in the mid 80's, Lwr 80's at the coast. It will be a great beach day and to be swimming in the lakes, whose water temperatures are climbing to near 80! Very refreshing! The High will be parked just over the Canadian border on Sunday. It will supply just enough low level dry air to keep most of Sunday dry, though clouds will be increasing. Winds will be shifting onshore, so a cooler feel on Sunday in the 70's and Lwr 80's can be expected. Skies will increase with cloud cover as another low tracks towards the Mid-Atlantic and south of New England. There is the potential a few showers could break off the low be directed into New England Sunday afternoon, but I am still leaning optimistic and hoping for the dry to hold strong. The best chance of showers will come late Sunday night into Monday. Clouds with scattered showers and onshore winds will keep temps in the mid 70's Monday.
High pressure will follow in behind the departing showers Monday with increasing sunshine Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with warming temperatures right back into the 80's. The next chance of showers or storms could come by next Friday with a cold front which could trigger showers and storms, but that is all a while a way. As we know, it's dry and we need any rain we can get. While we have a few chances of showers and storms...none of this will be enough to put a dent in the drought for now. Droughts have a tough time lasting in New England. Eventually, the pattern will change but for now the lawns will continue to brown, the trees are stressed and the gardens wilt. We will need some tropical rains to help provide any relief to these dry conditions.