Sep 1, 2016 1:54 PM
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
Tropical Storm Hermine continues to barrel to the Florida panhandle with sustained winds up to 70 mph in the center of the storm. Just under Hurricane strength. This storm continues to get stronger and will likely be upgraded to a hurricane today as it will be making landfall tonight somewhere near Apalachicola tonight. This will have a major impact as arrives with a significant storm surge and the potential for some life threatening flash flooding. If upgraded, this will be the first hurricane to hit Florida in 11 years! The last one being Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Incredible to think about that it has been that long!
The National Hurricane Center current track has this moving over the Carolinas where it will weaken some over land, but once it gets back over the open water, Hermine will feel off the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, get cut off from the Jetstream and stall off the mid-Atlantic coast. There are questions har far north towards New England this storm will be able to drift over the course of the weekend.
The image below is from the GFS model we use. It is not a perfect model and not always accurate, but this image shows the beast of a storm this will become off the mid-Atlantic and off the southern New England coastline. This image is a projection of where the storm could be and look like Early Sunday morning. This could easily intensify back into a Hurricane while sitting off the coast, sparing coast communities the worst of the wind and waves....but also lashing the coastlines with strong NNE winds 40-50 MPh, pounding waves, coastal flooding...especially from Long Island down through the New Jersey coastline, & the DelmarVa Peninsula.
Conditions will be going downhill across southern New England Sunday with developing rough surf, Gusty winds Gale force winds 40-45 mph, especially for the Cape and the Islands and south coastal communities of southern New England. Rain should also begin to spread into southern New England Sunday. The good news is this storm will stay just far enough to spar New England the worst of it's impacts.
In fact, New Hampshire will be in a pretty good spot to survive the weekend fairly unscathed all things considered. Clouds will likely increase on Sunday, with nice weather across the north country. Cooler onshore winds will become breezy at the coast Sunday as a band of clouds spreads in. We will also have to watch for the potential for a few showers spinning into NH for the afternoon and evening Sunday..but they just may hold off if the storm placement is just a little farther south. Labor Day will be our best day for clouds, showers and breezy winds at the coast. The rain does not look very heavy, but obviously conditions will not be ideal to end the holiday weekend.
The image below shows a cut-off low under a ridge of high pressure. This storm will be running into a blocking ridge of high pressure which will help to keep New Hampshire in pretty decent shape, but also the differences in air pressure between the high and the strengthening storm will make for strong winds just offshore. This storm will be stopped in it's track, do a loop de loop and then eventually begin to weaken as the ridge will kick this storm away by Tuesday with warmer temperatures to quickly return next week.
This will not be the kind of rain to bust a drought but the areas across SE NH and eastern MA will have the best chance of picking up some steadier rain fall. The heaviest rain will be at across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states closer to the coastline. Bands of Heavier rain could also spin back into Southern New England Sunday into Monday. Our best chance of any showers will be late Sunday-Sunday night and into Labor Day. There is the potential for up to an inch or more of rain if this storm tracks closer to New England. If the storm is slightly farther south, we will see like a few showers on Labor Day with minimal impacts.
Obviously, there is plenty to watch here in the coming days. We will be keeping you up to date of any of these changes. This will turn into a powerful storm south of New England, but the saving grace is the distance away from this storm. This will be more a nuisance to our Labor Day weekend than a problem. For others farther south, along the coastline, coastal flooding and winds will be an issue this weekend, and may even become a damaging storm for places like New Jersey.
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