Aug 30, 2016 11:57 PM
NH1 First Alert Weather: Fall feel returns to NH for Labor Day weekend
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
Welcome to the last day of Meteorological Summer! It was real! Meaning it was real hot and dry! It will go down as the warmest June, July, August period on record and one of the driest as well. We currently remain in our severe/extrem drought with very little relief of rain to look forward to.
A cold front will sag into northern New England today increasing the chance for few showers in Northern and central portions of the forecast area. A fair amount of high and mid level cloudiness will hold down heating but may generate enough instability to pop off an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon in the mountains and foothills. Highs will top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the north. Warmest areas will be in southern New Hampshire where highs will reach the mid to upper 80s. Most of day will be dry and more humid with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
The cold front will continue to slowly sag southward Wednesday night producing scattered showers and a thunderstorm periodicaly throughout the forecast area overnight. Lows will range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. An upper level trough continues to shift from in the from the Great Lakes Thursday bring a return to some cooler than normal air, something we have not seen all month of August! Models continue to show significant positive tilting to the though. This would slow the progress of the front as it aligns with upper flow and weak wave could develop along the front Thursday. The best chance of any lingering showers will be closer to the proximity of this front Thursday morning, especially near the coast. More clouds and lingering higher humidity will linger until the front pushes through late in the day.
Despite all the doings in the tropics, the good news is that it looks like Friday and Saturday will stay dry the 70's. Cooler air aloft may help to promote some afternoon cumulus development, especially on Friday. A weak upper level ridge over the top will keep the sunshine in place Saturday with a light sea breeze for the afternoon. The beaches will be coolish this weekend in the Lwr 70's for highs with steady onshore wind.
By Sunday could start seeing the effects of TD9/TS Hermine with some cirrus rolling in, but also should be dry and starting to warm up a bit as flow shifts to the SW. At this point, will be sticking with a persistent dry forecast for Monday and Tuesday. However, will watch how the trough and the tropical system interact. Given the current forecast, depending on the track, there would be greater impact to our across southern New England if anything. There is still there is a low probability at this point to see some wind or rain around Mon or Tue. One thing it would do passing to our south is produce enough swell to bring back the risk of rip currents by Sunday & Monday. Again, we will be watching this track closely with this system, which could have little or no effect on weather.