Sep 22, 2016 11:43 PM
NH1 First Alert Weather: Classic Fall Weekend
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
Friday is going to come with a few more clouds. An elevated rip current risk over coastal areas as a swell continues to build. The day starts with a stationary front across the Canadian border with upper level flow turning increasingly northwesterly and directing cooler air towards New England. This will drive the cold front and it's associated moisture plume south and out of the region by Friday evening...with a change to a cooler & drier airmass Friday night.
Forecast concerns center around just how much precipitation will be experienced along the front. The Cold front over the northern zones to start the day will take much of the day to press south. I am not too excited about precipitation potential as this front will not have much moisture or instability along with it. I expect a line of morning showers to become more scattered in nature and weaken as it pushes south...so rainfall amounts will unfortunately lessen as you head to our most drought- stricken areas.
I do expect a mostly cloudy day for just about everyone...with some breaking sunshine arriving over northern areas during the afternoon behind the departing front. With the front sitting right over New Hampshire for much of the day...expect a pretty large range in temperatures. Southern NH could will again make a run into the 70's to near 80. On the cooler side of the front from the Lakes North, highs will be in the 60's today.
Behind this cold front, robust cold air advection developing...areas from the mountains north will likely not reach much above the lower 60s. Total precipitation through this rain event looks to reach the quarter to half inch range north of the mountains...with amounts likely closer to one tenth of an inch to the south of this.
As the surface front sinks south Friday evening...a northwesterly flow aloft strengthens...with surface high pressure builds in Canada and gradually slides south over the course of the weekend. Mostly sunny skies will dominate bot Saturday and Sunday with a few fair weather clouds possible. Highs will be in the mid 60's Saturday and Lwr 60's Sunday. Conditions could be quite a bit cooler in the north mountains with highs in the 50's and maybe even some 40's in higher elevations. Gusty winds will be found in the hilltops and valleys this weekend. Overall, a beautiful fall weekend to enjoy outside, but have the fleece and warmer clothes ready! It's not summer anymore!
Models are in disagreement in the extended forecasted with an active high amplitude wavy jetstream which will come with changes and unpredictability. All models do agree that high pressure will be in control Saturday through Tuesday. Cold high pressure at that with a chance of frost in some areas Sunday morning and again Monday morning. For now, leaning on a nice stretch of weather through the middle of next week with temperatures gradually moderating to seasonal temps near 70 for Tuesday and Wednesday.