Aug 30, 2016 12:27 AM
NH1 First Alert Weather: A Brief Cool Down in Large Warm Pattern
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
High pressure will provide for a nice day Tuesday with temperatures mainly in the 70s to lower 80s across New Hampshire with a lighter west wind. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents with seas running 2-4 feet. The rough surf being supplied by Hurricane Gaston far out in the Atlantic. The weather is just perfect for outdoor activity. The high will move offshore late Tuesday and a cold front will approach from the northwest by Wednesday. The chance for showers will start to increase by Wednesday morning in the northern mountains as the front approaches.
Temperatures will be warmer ahead of this cold front with SW winds and mild air aloft allowing highs to climb into the mid-upper 80's by afternoon. There will be Slight chance that a few thunderstorms could produce strong winds Wednesday afternoon or evening as scattered showers and storms will track NW-SE across the state. The cold front should cross the region Wed night into early Thursday morning. Some models are showing signs of slowing it down. Given that, and the trough axis moving through later in the day, a few showers may be possible and linger on Thursday morning closer to the coast near the proximity of the front. Skies should be turning partly sunny by afternoon with cooler temps in the 70's to near 80 behind the front.
A trough will swing into the Northeast to end the week and deliver a shot of cooler Friday with highs in the mid 70's, with even cooler in the mountains. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 40s north, and the Lwr 50s everywhere else. This fall like trough does eventually allow ridging to our west to push into Hudson Bay this weekend helping to create high pressure at the surface for this Labor Day weekend. This will allow for another warm-up. Look for temps to warm a couple degrees Saturday into Sunday well into the 70's to near 80.
One caveat for the extended is that there are several tropical systems that will be moving around to our south and east, and although the pattern favors keeping these systems out of our area, models may not be handling their impact on the larger scale flow perfectly so this can lower confidence a bit. Either way, it does not appear we will be seeing any beneficial rainfall from any of the tropical disturbances currently on the playing field. Big upper level ridging promises serious summer warmth still hanging around for the first half September. This could be record warmth for this time of year. After a record warm August, September may be another scorcher!