Nov 10, 2016 12:00 AM
NH1 First Alert Weather
NH1 Chief Meteorologist
A fine Thursday can be expected today as weak high pressure builds in during the morning before shifting east, and allowing SW wind to develop. It should be mainly sunny, to partly sunny with increasing high to mid level clouds in the afternoon. Highs will not be as warm as the last few days, ranging the from the mid to upper 40s in the mountains to the low 50s in southern NH. Our next cold front start to push into the north country late tonight. Clouds will move in overnight, with a chance of some snow or rain showers in the mountains after midnight. Lows, generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Another upper trough will dig southeast out of Canada on Friday. This will tap into a little better cold air from Canada, so the cold front will be more strongly felt across New England. Temperatures on Friday will hold steady in the low 40s in the mountains, while southern and coastal areas warm into the low to mid 50s on a gusty northwest downsloping wind. Wind gusts to 30 mph or higher are possible on Friday as heavy sinking cold air combines with downsloping winds to mix down stronger winds from aloft. Winds will die down a little bit Friday night, but not enough to allow for ideal radiational conditions.
On Saturday, temperatures likey won`t get out of the upper 30s to mid 40s with a surface high pressure axis crossing the area. High pressure shifts to our south on Sunday, and warm air leftover from the broken down ridge will spill eastward into New England, allowing temperatures to warm back up into the 50s Sunday into Monday.
Models generally agree that a broad trough will develop over the East Coast on Tuesday, with surface low pressure forming off of Cape Hatteras. There is less agreement on what to do with this low from there, as the ECMWF begins to show a more amplified upper air pattern again, pulling this surface low northward, while the GFS is less amplified thus tracking a weaker surface low a little further offshore of New England on Wednesday.
At this point, the forecast will favor the Euro as the broad troughing over the East Coast noted in both major models would tend to pull low pressure northward up the coast, bringing a a chance of rain to the area.
One other thing to pay attention to is the expected King Tide next Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be the highest astronomical tide in years, so it will not take much of an onshore flow to cause water levels to surge above flood stage. At this time, it looks like a light onshore wind is most likely, though the details are still highly uncertain given the different solutions. A Deepening storm will come with a period of heavy rain likely sometime. Wednesday into Thursday.