Apr 1, 2015 6:41 AM

NH1 7-Day Forecast for Wednesday April 1, 2015

NH1 Chief Meteorologist - NH1.com

Another step forward as we celebrate surviving March 2015! Now onto April! This March came in like a Lion with the coldest day of the month on March first with and overnight low in Concord, NH of -8! The warmest day of the month came on March 26th with a high of 52. When you total all the days of the month together, temperatures averages below normal once again. Not a surprise, but temperatures averaged about 5.5 degrees below normal. That is a persistent deep cold which was relentless for most of the month! But we did get a break from the snow storms! Total precipitation for the month in Concord, NH was only 1.48 inches, and only 5.8" of snow fell for the month of March. So despite the cold, and the pattern of this winter, I would say this March has gone out like a lamb!

So what will this April bring? No April's fools snow storm...but I would expect more challenging weather for New England and perhaps across the country as the severe thunderstorm season begins to fire up! As the lingering of cold of winter clashes with incoming surges of warmth from the incoming spring, we can be sure that a more active pattern will develop. Many times the battle zone between the cold and warm can set up right over New England with prolonged days of clouds, rain, and cool east winds. I don't want to get your hopes up...so let's hope for the best...but understand spring in New England can be very difficult to warm up. Also in the back of our minds is always the potential for river, ice jam flooding. All it will take is a few days of heavy rain and warmer temps, and we could have more serious problems.

For now, all is quiet. Building high pressure will be pushing south and provide another round of colder than normal air tonight through tomorrow with mostly clear skies at night, and sunshine during the day. As the high slides off the coast, warmer SW winds will begin to shift into New England by Thursday. A warm front arrives Thursday morning...the leading edge of the warmer spring like air! This will come with morning clouds on Thursday. By afternoon, skies will turn partly sunny and temperatures will be warming to near 50. The mild SW flow will continue into Friday with highs climbing into the Lwr 60's across SNH. That's more like it! Unfortunately this warmth will come with a cost.

A cold will start to push into New England late Thursday night and stall over us Friday. This could trigger a few showers at that time. Of bigger concern, a wave of low pressure will ride up along this stalled front and track over us Friday night and Saturday morning. Temperatures look warm enough for mainly rain where up to .50-1" of rain could fall. Across the northern mountains, the low will pull in enough cold air that a change to snow is expected Saturday morning with the potential for 3-6" across the far north! Wet flakes could try to mix in all the way to the Lakes Region Saturday morning, with gusty Northerly winds departing behind the low. I expect the wet mix to be ending Saturday afternoon. A weak front will push through Easter Sunday with a few clouds, and a cooler feel in the Lwr 40's.

Next week looks like one of those challenging spring weeks. It is still far away, so it is impossible to have real confidence since the weather can easily change this far out. Still, you can recognize trends in the upper level pattern and see what this could mean for New England. Our models are starting to sniff a significant boundary of warm moist air surging out of the Gulf of Mexico overriding the colder heavier air in place across the Great lakes to the Northeast.

Stating next Tuesday, a front looks to stall south of New England with a few waves of low pressure riding along it. This will mean periodic bouts of rain, sometimes heavy. It could be a long duration event meaning the rainy weather could last into next Thursday with cool onshore winds for us. I do not like the look of it right now. Heavy rain and melting could mean some river and ice jam flooding so it is something we will have to watch in the coming days. For now enjoy the calm while it lasts! Let's get ready for April!


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