Jan 8, 2016 12:00 AM
New NH1 News Poll: Donald Trump leads in NH but Jeb Bush battles John Kasich for 2nd
NH1 Political Director - NH1.com
CONCORD - A new NH1 News poll in New Hampshire indicates Donald Trump remains well out in front of the rest of the Republican presidential field. But the survey stands out by suggesting that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are battling for second.
And the automated telephone survey, released Friday, indicates a divide between undeclared voters and registered Republicans when it comes to support for Trump, the front runner in virtually all polls since last summer. And the survey point to a gender gap, with Trump surprising holding larger lead among female voter than their male counterparts.
The survey, conducted Thursday by REACH Communications, questioned 1,000 Republicans and independents likely to vote in the Feb. 9 GOP primary in the Granite State.
Among the overall sample, Trump grabs 31.7% support. Bush is at 11.9%, with Kasich at 11.8% and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 11%. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is backed by 9.7% of those questioned, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 8.9%. Taking into account the overall poll's 3.1% sampling error, all four candidates are basically all knotted up.
Following further behind are businesswoman Carly Fiorina (4.6%), famed neurosurgeon Ben Carson (3.8%), Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (3%), former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (2.6%), and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (1%).
Among registered Republicans, Trump stands at 26.2%. But his support surges to 35.6% among undeclared voters likely to vote in the GOP primary.
Among male voters, Trump stands at 30.6%. But among women, he climbs to 39.1%.
Bush scores better among registered Republicans than among independents. He's in second place, at 13.9% among Republicans but drops to 10.% among undeclared voters.
Kasich's in second place among independents, at 12.8%, but drops to 10.3% among Republicans.
The survey's sampling error for the 416 Republican sampled was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll's sampling error for the 484 independents who said they were likely to vote in the Republican primary was 4.05 percentage points.
REACH Communications is a New Hampshire owned and operated survey and marketing firm run by Republican operatives who are not taking sides in the 2016 GOP nomination race