Jan 20, 2016 12:47 AM

FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Tracking NH's potential weekend storm - will it hit or miss?

NH1 Chief Meteorologist

There are still plenty of questions regarding the weekend storm, but one thing is for certain. It will NOT be nearly as bad here, as it is going to be in the Mid-Atlantic, where this has the potential to be a historic storm for some cities like Richmond, Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia with the potential for 1-2 feet of snow could fall.

Weather model data continues to poor in and adjustments will be made in the next day or two to the track, snowfall estimates, and impacts. The good news, depending on your point view, is here in New Hampshire we will be spared the worst of this storm. Here is a quick and early estimate of the locations who can expect the heaviest snow.

This is from the latest GFS model which trended south Tuesday, then trended back north late Tuesday night.. with heavier accumulating snow into southern New England, including southern New Hampshire.

That said, there are other models which have have the main bulk of snow staying south of New Hampshire this weekend. It is a trend we will have to watch as we get better data as we get closer to the weekend. The question is do the models continue to trend farther south with a non event for NH, or do they start trend a bit farther north. It will be interesting to watch.

There are many variables in play regarding the storm this weekend obviously, and we simply need a bit more time for the models to adjust to the incoming Pacific energy. One thing we will be watching are the upper level winds. The energy will dive into the midwest and really dig all the way down into the Gulf states and scoop up available moisture and start to develop into a stronger storm. Meanwhile, the Northern Polar stream will be strong and directing cold dry air from Canada right into the Northeast. The cold dome of dry heavy air will be in place for the end of the week. If the northern jetstream is strong enough, it will direct this low just far enough south of New England to spare much of Northern New England.

The Latest 00Z Canadian Model shows this drier solution for New Hampshire, with snow spreading into Southern New England.

Again, at this point all we can do is watch for trends before we can confidently say what is going to happen. You can see how once over the open water, that this will become a powerhouse storm. The worse of the wind and waves will stay away from New Hampshire with the greatest impacts for Coastal Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

By the end of Wednesday or Thursday we will have a much better command of how this will be playing out. So stay tuned to for future changes! Until then, plenty of cold sunshine with high temperatures in the afternoon in the 20's right through Friday.


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